Can Mayor Hales Jump the Shark and Lead Portland to the Promised Land?

Charlie Hales shocked Portlanders when he announced he is withdrawing from the mayor’s race.  The decision was political, politicians do not cede office without calculation, but it was also honorable.  The city is grappling with prosperity, and Hales will now focus on crafting a new comprehensive plan to address the issues of rapid growth, rising rents and homelessness.  Most mayors live for a revving tech sector and lucrative real estate market, but Portland is different.  It has, historian Carl Abbot writes, “a moral political culture that values the public good over the individual.”

Four decades ago, Oregonians invested in the novel idea that the judicious use of land could create a sustaining mix of private capital and civic enterprise.  The investment is generating a considerable return.  Portland is a magnet for the so-called “creative class,” the knowledge workers that are crucial to the 21st century economy. In contrast to metropolitan areas of similar size (e.g. Austin and Minneapolis) attracting the creative class, the Rose City does not have a major research institution.  Its lure is a lively pedestrian-oriented, bike friendly, nature infused urban environment that offers new venues for work and leisure.  In the past five years software industry jobs have expanded by almost 70 percent, from 7,200 to over 12,000.  The Pearl District alone has three collaborative work centers—Central Office, We Work, and Desk Hub—that are key indicators of a thriving tech sector.  At the same time the Pearl’s rents have exploded, rising nearly 50 percent in a year.  My 1000 square foot unit rented for $1700 a month one year ago—today it goes for $2500 a month. 

Not surprisingly, the neighborhood is rife with land sharks.  At the local breakfast café I feel I have been transported to Orlando circa 2006, as jargon filled discussions mimic real estate infomercials: “set investment goals,” “secure return” and “outperform the market.”  The difference is the product for sale.  “Drivable sub-urbanism,” as real estate expert Christopher Leinberger calls it, fueled Orlando’s real estate bubble and bust.  “Walkable urbanism” is for sale in the Pearl District.  The neighborhood's high walkscores www.walkscore.com signify that most daily needs can be met within walking or rail transit distance.  Rents and property values are higher, but when the car is an option Leinberger found walkable urbanism less costly than than owning a car and living in a suburban subdivison. http://www.smartgrowthamerica.org/documents/foot-traffic-ahead.pdf  I make ends meet because I lives sans auto and rent my parking space for $200 a month.  Giving up the automoblie mitigates the impact of high rents, but once the land sharks smell blood humanity suffers.   

Advertisement for Walkable Urbanism

Large outside investors have a found a formula for translating properties with high walkscores into profits. They have been especially active in city's near eastside, buying apartment buildings at $100,000 a unit, investing $15,000 in unit upgrades, and then selling the building at $150,000 a unit.  The other strategy is to make upgrades and then significantly raise the rents, which often forces out existing renters.  The land sharks are feeding and their tactics explain why Mayor Hales declared that “a lot of the city is at a very fragile point right now.”

Cutthroat real estate speculation brought the country to the edge of economic collapse in both the Great Depression and the Great Recession.  A skilled technocrat, Hales is the one person who can ensure that a new comprehensive plan will direct development for a future population (expected to grow by 200,000 in the next twenty years) on lines that will procure sustainability, equity and profit.  There is a unique moral dimension at play in Portland, and Hales' ability to navigate the perils of prosperity will play to a much larger audience than the city’s 660,000 residents. 

This summer the Mayor attended the Vatican summit on climate change.  Portland is a prototype of the Promised Land Pope Francis envisions, a city where carbon is in remission and nature is ascendant.  Portland remains a work in progress, and reaching the Promised Land requires a leader who must convince citizens not to worship the Golden Calf.  Has a Portland Mayor ever had a greater exit?